The Riskiest Assumption about your Business Idea


Hey Reader,

Today, I want to talk about the most important milestone in starting a business. If you don’t do this, you’ll waste a year while building your business. That's what happened with my first business, Breadcrumbs, doing things like

  • Forming my C-Corp
  • Open a business bank account
  • Setting up my website
  • Building a product

Surprisingly, none of these are the most important things. Don’t get me wrong, they’re important, but still not the most important.

The most important thing is validating that people will pay for your solution.

This is the biggest risk or riskiest assumption. Because if it’s not true, you don’t have a business. Full stop! None of the other tasks will matter.

No matter how much money you raise, it’ll eventually reduce to zero if your business can’t generate revenue.

For products like Instagram or TikTok, daily active users (DAU) can be validators if you want to earn money from ads. Otherwise, money is the only true validating metric.

About six months into Breadcrumbs, I realized this fact. I avoided it because I believed that if Breadcrumbs didn’t make money, I would have to return to my day job. And, all the doubters would be correct.

In reality, I would just have to pivot and try again.

Don’t waste a year like I did. Here's how

Seeing someone sell a similar product is a great indicator, but confirm that by selling your version. Don’t assume!

Also, take your friends and family's words with a grain of salt. They will all say

  • “That’s such a good idea. I had the exact same problem.”
  • “I wish I had that.”
  • “I’d definitely would buy that.”
  • “I bought something similar once.”

Unfortunately, they will say that because they don’t want to burst your bubble. These are all hypotheticals and don't carry any weight.

Don’t believe me? Next time they say any of those options, ask them to pay you right there. Ask them, “Want to sign up today? I take cash, venmo, zelle, etc.”

If they pay you, LETS GOOO!!! Your first paying customer has validated your idea.

If they say anything besides yes, sorry dude, they’re not interested. But being aware is better than being fooled. When you’re aware, you can iterate. Then you can go back and ask again.

People will appreciate the persistence and desire to solve their problems.

So here, how to avoid it!

How to validate your business

It’s better to know your business won’t work than being a wannapreneur.

  • Interview potential customers to understand their pain points - Read the Mom Test
  • Develop the simplest solution - this could be a landing page that lets people book calls with you
  • Ask people to pay before you build anything
  • Avoid offering free trials at the beginning. People who support you will pay.

You might ask yourself, “How can I ask someone to pay me if I don’t have a product?”

If a problem is painful enough, people will do anything to solve it.

Trust me, I’ve made $1000s before having a product. Also, nothing is more motivating to build your product than taking someone’s money.

As long as you try your best, people will take the chance that you can solve their problem. In the worst-case scenario, refund people their money.

Ultimately, sell before you build

  • The #1 milestone is proving that people will pay for your solution.
  • Don’t waste time on logos, websites, or legal paperwork before validating demand.
  • Validation = someone giving you real money, not just compliments or interest.
  • Friends and family will say nice things—ask them to pay to know if they’re serious.
  • If no one pays, pivot. If someone does, you have a green light to build.

Good luck, and reply if you want help with your business idea

ScatterMind

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